RESUMEN
Making timely assessments of disease progression in patients with COVID-19 could help offer the best personalized treatment. The purpose of this study was to explore an effective model to predict the outcome of patients with COVID-19. We retrospectively included 188 patients (124 in the training set and 64 in the test set) diagnosed with COVID-19. Patients were divided into aggravation and improvement groups according to the disease progression. Three kinds of models were established, including the radiomics, clinical, and combined model. Receiver operating characteristic curves, decision curves, and Delong's test were used to evaluate and compare the models. Our analysis showed that all the established prediction models had good predictive performance in predicting the progress and outcome of COVID-19.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/diagnóstico por imagen , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X , Anciano , COVID-19/etiología , Diagnóstico por Computador/métodos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Pronóstico , Curva ROCRESUMEN
The clinical spectrum of COVID-19 pneumonia is varied. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors at an early stage for predicting deterioration that require transferring the patients to ICU. A retrospective multicenter study was conducted on COVID-19 patients admitted to designated hospitals in China from Jan 17, 2020, to Feb 17, 2020. Clinical presentation, laboratory data, and quantitative CT parameters were also collected. The result showed that increasing risks of ICU admission were associated with age > 60 years (odds ratio [OR], 12.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.42-24.61; P = 0.032), coexisting conditions (OR, 5.55; 95% CI, 1.59-19.38; P = 0.007) and CT derived total opacity percentage (TOP) (OR, 8.0; 95% CI, 1.45-39.29; P = 0.016). In conclusion, older age, coexisting conditions, larger TOP at the time of hospital admission are associated with ICU admission in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Early monitoring the progression of the disease and implementing appropriate therapies are warranted.